> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://contextfirst.blog/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # The Afternoon We Shipped Three Wrong Metrics - URL: https://contextfirst.blog/afternoon-three-wrong-metrics/ - Published: 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z - Description: Bad numbers erode trust faster than no numbers - Author: Iheatu Chris Wogu - Tags: Field Notes, Engineering Management, Agentic Delivery, Learning Journey 2026 On June 1 we shipped three person-summary metrics that managers would have trusted in a staffing conversation. By **10:52** the same day, three commits corrected them: merges counted only PRs created in the window, open snapshots used the wrong catalog, and cycle time included still-open PRs. Bad numbers erode trust faster than no numbers. Here's the reconciliation identity we use now - and the three checks I'd run before putting any metrics in a staff meeting. The morning [CLI refactor](https://contextfirst.blog/script-to-cli-spreadsheet-product/) and [pipeline work](https://contextfirst.blog/parallel-fetch-cache-run-logs/) mattered. The afternoon fixes mattered more. **Here's what this piece covers:** the leadership cost of trusted fiction, the three wrong definitions, same-day corrections, the reconciliation identity, and three lead habits. Part of [Field Notes: agentic delivery](https://contextfirst.blog/field-notes-agentic-delivery/). --- ## 1\. The leadership problem Managers staff from `merged` and `open` counts. If those columns are undefined - or defined wrong - you are not measuring engineering; you are laundering fiction through Excel. **Wrong:** "We fixed some bugs in the afternoon." **Right:** "Between 10:20 and 10:52 we corrected `prs_merged`, `prs_open`, and merge-cycle hours before anyone built a narrative on them." The anti-pattern is **metrics that lie** \- undefined columns, open PRs counted as cycle time, the wrong catalog for "open." --- ## 2\. What the git history shows Verified timestamps (EDT), same morning cluster as the productization: | Time | Commit | Change | | ----- | ------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------- | | 10:20 | dd6c672 | Per-person min/max/avg hours open → merge | | 10:46 | 0f69edb | Fix prs\_open snapshot; exclude open PRs from merge cycle time | | 10:52 | 923250f | Fix prs\_merged \- all merges in window, not only PRs created in May | sequenceDiagram participant AM as Morning ship participant Fix as Afternoon fixes participant Staff as Staff meeting risk AM->>Staff: Confident columns in Excel Fix->>AM: 10:20 cycle hours Fix->>AM: 10:46 open + cycle filter Fix->>AM: 10:52 merged window semantics Note over Staff: Narrative never hardens on fiction --- ## 3\. The three bugs **`prs_merged`** \- counted merges only for PRs *created* in the window. Carry-over merges (opened earlier, merged in May) vanished. Staffing looked quieter than reality. **`prs_open`** \- snapshot at window end used the wrong catalog. Open queue overstated or understated depending on who had activity in-window. **Merge cycle hours** \- included still-open PRs. Averages inflated; "slow" looked systemic when the denominator was wrong. Wrong definition before the fix (sketch): ```python # WRONG - merges only for PRs created in the window def prs_merged_wrong(rows, start, end): return sum( 1 for r in rows if start <= r.created < end and start <= r.merged < end ) # RIGHT - any merge whose merged_at falls in [start, end) def prs_merged(rows, start, end): return sum(1 for r in rows if r.merged and start <= r.merged < end) ``` Phase 2 detail rows and Phase 3b catalogs are different sources for different columns - mixing them without a dictionary is how silent bugs ship. No automated tests that day; bugs found by manual reconciliation and later agent audit ([article 11](https://contextfirst.blog/auditing-agent-wrote-analytics/)). --- ## 4\. Named pattern: same-day metric correction > **Same-day metric correction** \- ship, reconcile, fix before the narrative hardens. ### The reconciliation identity For **window-opened** PRs only, at window end: `authored ≈ merged + open + closed_unmerged` Verified example from the metrics review (`monika-sbd`, May 2026): | Repo | authored | merged + open + closed\_um | Match | | -------------------- | -------- | -------------------------- | ----- | | global-services | 2 | 0 + 1 + 1 = 2 | Yes | | global-user-services | 3 | 3 + 0 + 0 = 3 | Yes | | polaris-turbo | 10 | 9 + 0 + 1 = 10 | Yes | **Confidence:** git timestamps verified; reconciliation rows verified against May 2026 production caches in `docs/metrics-review-findings.md`. Do not apply the identity to totals that include carry-over `prs_merged` / `prs_open` without scoping to window-opened PRs ([README as contract](https://contextfirst.blog/readme-as-contract-half-open-windows/)). --- ## 5\. What I'd do as a lead 1. **Demand a one-page metrics dictionary before any dashboard ships.** Column name ≠ definition. 2. **Reconcile one person manually each month.** Spot-check is not optional - it is how `monika-sbd` caught fiction. 3. **Never compare month-over-month until window semantics are frozen.** Half-open windows and timezone belong in the contract first. --- ### Further reading - [An 857-line honesty machine](https://contextfirst.blog/pr-timeline-script-engineering-metrics/) \- origin probe - [Parallel fetch, raw cache, and run logs](https://contextfirst.blog/parallel-fetch-cache-run-logs/) \- same-day pipeline - [README as contract](https://contextfirst.blog/readme-as-contract-half-open-windows/) \- freeze the window - [Field notes: agentic delivery](https://contextfirst.blog/field-notes-agentic-delivery/) - github-analysis: `dd6c672` · `0f69edb` · `923250f` · 2026-06-01 --- ![Iheatu Chris Wogu](https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/3457705?s=176&v=4) ## About the author **Iheatu Chris Wogu** is an engineering manager focused on launch programs, honest engineering metrics, and **engineering-led, agent-accelerated** delivery - researching where work queues up when agents widen dev output, then building proof, gates, and measurement that scale. Field notes live on [First Context](https://contextfirst.blog/). Values treatise: [engineering manager values](https://contextfirst.blog/engineering-manager-values/). **LinkedIn:** [linkedin.com/in/iheatu-chris-wogu](https://www.linkedin.com/in/iheatu-chris-wogu/?ref=contextfirst.blog)